EES queues: 41 million trips and $45bn at risk, WTTC warns

The World Travel and Tourism Council published a stark number on 9 June 2026: if EES queues at Schengen borders regularly reach three or four hours, around one in three potential visitors from the UK, US, Canada and Australia would become much less likely to travel there or would not go at all. Applied to 2026 visitor forecasts, the council estimated up to 41 million arrivals and $45.4 billion in spending could be at risk. It is an upper-bound figure, tied to waits that cross a specific threshold and stay there.

What the research actually found

WTTC commissioned the GSIQ European Entry/Exit System Consumer Research Study, surveying 2,512 international travellers from the UK, US, Canada and Australia in May 2026. Most were not hostile to the system: 87% said they would accept some disruption if future travel became smoother, and 65% supported EES once it was explained to them.

The shift happens at the three-hour mark. Regular waits of three hours or more left 39% of UK respondents, 33% of US and Canadian respondents and 27% of Australians much less likely to travel. Applied to the number of visitors those four markets send, that rate produces a very large absolute figure.

For context, WTTC figures reported by TradeArabia put travel and tourism’s contribution to Europe’s economy at $3 trillion in 2025, supporting 40.7 million jobs. The EES risk is framed not as an airport-operations issue but as a macroeconomic one.

Has the deterrence threshold actually been crossed?

Not systematically. A YouGov survey of British adults, carried out on 27 June 2026, found that just over half (53%) of those who had travelled to Europe in the previous month said EES had no impact on their overall trip. Experiences varied sharply by airport and time of day. Some departures saw queues of several hours at busy times; many did not.

Summer 2026 brought genuine congestion at leisure airports handling high volumes of first-time EES enrolments. Which? named Tenerife South, Palma, Alicante, Malaga and Amsterdam Schiphol among the airports travellers most often reported for EES queues on departure, with bunched UK flights a common trigger. The head of Fraport Greece, which runs 14 regional airports, said passengers at Corfu, Rhodes, Mykonos and Crete had been left queuing outside in the heat, the Greek Herald reported. The congestion was concentrated rather than uniform.

The WTTC deterrence scenario requires persistent three-plus-hour waits to materialise. Right now, waits that long remain the exception rather than a reliable feature of any specific route. The autumn picture is expected to improve as passenger volumes fall and the share of already-enrolled travellers at the border grows.

What WTTC wants member states to do

The council set out three priorities in its June statement. First, member states should accelerate adoption of the Travel to Europe app, which lets travellers pre-register passport data and a facial image up to 72 hours before reaching the border. Uptake has been thin: the official app page lists only Sweden and Portugal as supporting it. The app does not replace the border check, but the EU says it can speed it up.

Second, a coordinated communication campaign across key source markets, particularly the UK, US, Australia and Canada, should prepare travellers for what the border actually involves. Third, member states need fully working equipment and enough staff at every border crossing point so that the system runs as designed.

Why the number matters even if the risk hasn’t peaked

The 41 million figure puts a price on the debate over border queues. As the temporary flexibility on biometric checks runs towards its September expiry and member states decide how to staff their desks, a sustained congestion problem now carries a specific, published economic cost.

For travellers, the practical read is straightforward. The deterrence threshold has not been crossed. Queue times are real and worth accounting for in your plans, but the evidence so far suggests most Schengen crossings this summer have not reached the level that would put someone off visiting Europe in future. The risk is that a concentration of severe congestion events tips enough travellers into the “not worth it” column to affect booking patterns going into 2027.

If you have already completed your first EES enrolment at a Schengen border since October 2025, your EES file is kept for three years and a day after your last exit. Return trips will be faster. The queue at your first crossing is the slow part; subsequent crossings skip the full enrolment step.

ETIAS is separate from all of this

ETIAS, the EU pre-travel authorisation that press reporting on EU planning places in 2027, will be completed online before you leave home. It does not add to border queue time. Applications are not yet open. No action is required yet. Applications are not open. For how EES and ETIAS work alongside each other, the EES vs ETIAS guide covers both systems. For the current launch position, see the ETIAS status page.